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Friday, September 24, 2021

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 4.5%

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2021 12:32:00 PM

GDP forecasts had been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID, but now seem to have stabilized. 


Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months.

 MerrillGoldmanGDPNow
7/30/217.0%9.0%6.1%
8/20/214.5%5.5%6.1%
9/10/214.5%3.5%3.7%
9/17/214.5%4.5%3.6%
9/24/214.5%4.5%3.7%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP. [Sept 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.5% (qoq ar). [Sept 24 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.7 percent on September 21, up from 3.6 percent on September 16. [Sept 21 estimate]