Thursday, May 13, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 473,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2021 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 498,000 to 507,000. The 4-week moving average was 534,000, a decrease of 28,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,250 from 560,000 to 562,250.
emphasis added
This does not include the 103,571 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 101,815 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 534,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,655,000 (SA) from 3,700,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 7,283,703 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 6,863,451 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,265,193 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 4,973,804.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.