Thursday, October 01, 2020

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Significantly in August

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2020 02:40:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: July Case-Shiller Results and August Forecast: Pushing Decisively Higher

Home prices continued to push pandemic-related uncertainties aside and reach new heights into the summer months, as demand for housing outpaced supply....
...
An unprecedented lack of for-sale homes combined with persistently low mortgage rates have stoked a competition for housing in recent months that will not relent. Sales volume has held firm at a time when it would normally show signs of cooling, and home prices continue to push decisively higher. The question now is how much longer this will continue. While coronavirus-related developments will dictate the path forward for the economy, thus far, the housing market has withstood basically every obstacle that the pandemic has thrown its way, and home prices have grown without restriction. With mortgage rates poised to remain low for the near future, barring a sudden surge in inventory, it appears that upward price pressures should endure into the fall.

Annual growth in August as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, October 27.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 5.3% in August, up from 4.8% in July.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 4.5% YoY in August from 3.9% in July, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 3.9% YoY compared to 3.3% YoY in July.