According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day .
There were 502,290 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 38,672 positive tests. This is the most positive tests ever.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.7% (red line). This is the highest percent positive since early May.
For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.
What about taking ICU capacity? Isn't that the more important number for keeping the economy open?
ReplyDeleteMany people are testing positive for covid or antibodies without major complications
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DeleteICU capacity is not the same as containing the virus. Most of the economic impact is due to people voluntarily retreating from economic life for fear of the virus. Besides, hospitalization and death are going to lag behind positive tests.
DeleteThe current metric is good for getting a rough estimate of whether we are containing the pandemic or not. ICU capacity may be what we use to determine if we need to close the economy, but if you are focused on human lives the current view is more helpful at predicting how many lives will be unnecessarily lost
ReplyDeleteMore hysteria...where are the hospital metrics? What is the median age and health condition of the positive tests?
ReplyDeleteThe hospital and death metrics lag positive tests. And the positive tests are skyrocketing past previous highs while in other advanced countries positive numbers have plummeted and have stayed down. But why ruin a feel-good story, right? It's not like 125,000 people have died...
DeleteTwo more weeks...have you checked out that median-age data yet for new positive test results?
DeleteThe low mortality and hospitalized figures give false sense of security. The infections will eventually trickle into vulnerable populations through asymptomatic carriers. We're in the eye of the storm currently as the virus works itself through the young. Everything happens with 1-2 week delays with this virus. There is no reason to expect the IFR to have changed. What has changed is the age profile of the tested and the +s.
ReplyDeleteUseless fearmongering.None of this can be determined with the data offered.
DeleteI see this graph as adding a specific contribution. There are other sources that report on other metrics including ICU capacity and hospitalizations, such as many state health departments. For example here is Arizonas https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php There's no need for everyone to report on everything. Its redundant and doesn't add anything. Look to other sources for that information. This plot is reporting a specific metric which may not be presented in such a way by others. That's the contribution I see. How many tests are conducted and how many of those are positive as a percent. The percentage is indicative of how well we may know how many positives are actually out there. If the percentage is getting high, then we are losing a grip and there are a lot more out there we are not even aware of. Sure, a number of them may be asymptomatic or fare well enough. But the death count also march hand in hand with rising daily positive counts. The daily positive case counts can be thought of as a leading indicator or hospitalizations and serious cases. As the daily positive counts go up, the daily death counts will follow.
ReplyDeleteThe testing is a complete debacle once you get into the details. Even how covid deaths are counted is laughable as a meaningful measure. About the best we have is overall mortality which is inline with the average for the past 3 years per the CDC. Stop this mindless fear mongering.
DeletePlease cite data showing death counts are going up with positive cases. I have not seen any recent data supporting that assertion.
ReplyDeleteCovid info on this site is broadly discrediting as a whole.
ReplyDelete