Wednesday, April 01, 2020

ADP: Private Employment decreased 27,000 in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2020 08:19:00 AM

From ADP:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 27,000 Jobs in March; the March NER Utilizes Data Through March 12 and Does Not Reflect the Full Impact of COVID-19 on the Overall Employment Situation

Private sector employment decreased by 27,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month. The NER uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the March NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation.
...
“It is important to note that the ADP National Employment Report is based on the total number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s payroll through the 12th of the month. This is the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As such, the March NER does not fully reflect the most recent impact of COVID-19 on the employment situation, including unemployment claims reported on March 26, 2020.”
This was above the consensus forecast for 154,000 private sector jobs lost in the ADP report (the job losses will be in the April report due to timing).

The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 100,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost in March.