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Monday, November 26, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts; Mid-2s

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2018 05:36:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We look for 3Q GDP growth to be revised slightly lower to 3.4% qoq saar in the second release next week. We continue to track 2.7% for 4Q. [Nov 21 estimate].
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
[W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.4% (qoq ar) [Nov 21 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on November 21 [Nov 21 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.5%. [Nov 23 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the mid-2s for Q4.   Based on these estimates for Q4, 2018 annual GDP would be around 2.9%, and Q4 over Q4 around 3.1%.   In line with most forecasts at the beginning of the year.