Friday, September 21, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 9/21/2018 03:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We are tracking robust 3.7% qoq saar growth for 3Q and 4.4% for 2Q. [Sept 21 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14. [Sept 19 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2018:Q3 and 2.7% for 2018:Q4. [Sept 21 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.