There are a number of observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success. My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people - not just stock investors.
However, for example, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was on CNBC on Feb 22, 2017, and was asked if the stock market rally was a vote of confidence in the new administration, he replied: "Absolutely, this is a mark-to-market business, and you see what the market thinks."
And Larry Kudlow wrote in 2007: A Stock Market Vote of Confidence for Bush: "I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today's stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president."
Note: Kudlow's comments were made a few months before the market started selling off in the Great Recession. For more on Kudlow, see: Larry Kudlow is usually wrong
For fun, here is a graph comparing S&P500 returns (ex-dividends) under Presidents Trump and Obama:
Click on graph for larger image.Blue is for Mr. Obama, Orange is for Mr. Trump.
At this point, the S&P500 is up 6.8% under Mr. Trump compared to up 22.9% under Mr. Obama for the same number of market days.
This could be one of your worst posts ever.
ReplyDeleteThis comparision is incredibly nonsense for a man like you.
Obama got in office when the market was at it's bottom, and Trump got in when the market was reaching it's peak.
Are you abandoning reason, Mr. Mcbride?
Do you dislike your president?
I can't understand that
I am a fan from Brazil.
I follow you for years Mr. Mcbride
Thanks and sorry for my poor english
Leonardo Camillo
He specically says he does not believe the stock market performance - especially on short horizons- is a marker of presidential performance... The title of the post says this is for fun, it is a joke... As it is a real joke any Trump supporter that says that the recent economic performance in the US (lowest unemployement in years and highest stock market ever..) is attributable to Trump
ReplyDeleteBill, The cornerstone value of your extraordinary blog, of which I have a reader since Tanta, has been its avoidance, for the most part, of the poison, divisiveness, distraction and emotion of our childish political environment. You have strayed at times, though mostly just evidencing your humanity. For the record, I can not claim absolute allegiance to either major party and have to confess as to feeling provoked and offended by the relentless stream of distorted information from both sides of the "aisle". Clearly, it is a race to the bottom of the credibly ladder by nearly every propagator of news and information. Your impartiality therefore has been critical to the value of your data. For this reason, love him or hate him, it is disappointing to see the misrepresentation by omission in your article of the 10.8% rise in the S&P from Election Day to Inauguration Day for Trump. Obama experienced an also strong 4.0% during that period. As markets are forward-looking, that is obviously relevant data. The plethora of mis-information or partial information being pumped in support of a narrative or political persuasion is absolutely out of control. Thank you for your outstanding and excellent commentary every day, but as loyal long-time reader, I'd respectfully request you avoid "Just for fun" articles that clearly evidence an agenda by omission of the full data set. You're too good for us to lose you to that abyss.
ReplyDelete