Key Inflation Measures Show Increase, but still Low year-over-year in April

Note: The year-over-year change increased in April, but it is important to note that CPI declined in April 2013 (and core CPI was essentially unchanged) - and April 2013 was dropped out of the calculation this month so some increase in the year-over-year change was expected. Looking forward, I think inflation (year-over-year) will increase a little this year as growth picks up, but too much inflation will not be a concern this year.

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.2% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (3.2% annualized rate) in April. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for April here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.8%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for March and increased just 1.2% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 3.2% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.9% annualized, and core CPI increased 2.9% annualized.

In general these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target.