by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2012 08:30:00 AM
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Housing Starts increased sharply to 872 thousand SAAR in September
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000. This is 15.0 percent above the revised August estimate of 758,000 and is 34.8 percent above the September 2011 rate of 647,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 603,000; this is 11.0 percent above the revised August figure of 543,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000. This is 11.6 percent above the revised August rate of 801,000 and is 45.1 percent above the September 2011 estimate of 616,000.
Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 545,000; this is 6.7 percent above the revised August figure of 511,000.
![Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiumXqHQ5u5-geDw1FFgb3JW3Fo96deIfeG-PEsTaSWTpEA-3vqBy58xNIeBZrcwICm5_gr6mW32h-I9HtLmzLSFID37mwy8axYUOUm-IaYUCnboVOQV_ww5nwtfMM6L2KX8e1h/s320/StartsShortSept2012.jpg)
The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.
Total housing starts were at 872 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 15.0% from the revised August rate of 758 thousand (SAAR). Note that August was revised up from 750 thousand.
Single-family starts increased 11.0 to 603 thousand in September.
The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.
![Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh3-TCFfuNv9X6q-ZnJ7RKYz_vOQKY3ADbWduAL4lDBEOgQVM1CNPngCG3ygnNcqgwMQ31zDMe-sYEsA0htvO-JVX928HZUqZHoR08NTk6-fDZtFJkItpycjlNYdx3CgvF-j0d/s320/StartsSept2012.jpg)
Total starts are up about 80% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up 70% from the low.
This was way above expectations of 765 thousand starts in September. This was partially because of the volatile multi-family sector, but single family starts were up sharply too - and above 600 thousand SAAR for the first time since 2008. Right now starts are on pace to be up about 25% from 2011.