Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Retail Sales increased 0.8% in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.8% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1% from July 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent from the previous month and 4.1 percent above July 2011. ... The May to June 2012 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent to -0.7%.
Ex-autos, retail sales increased 0.8% in July.

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for June were revised down to a 0.7% decrease (from 0.5% decrease).

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 21.9% from the bottom, and now 6.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail Sales since 2006The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 19.1% from the bottom, and now 7.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.0% on a YoY basis (4.1% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.8% in July.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThis was above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.3% increase in July, and above (edit) the consensus for a 0.4% increase ex-auto.

This mostly just reversed the sharp decline in June.
All current retail sales graphs