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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

LPS: House Price Index Shows 0.8 Percent decline in October

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2012 11:10:00 AM

The LPS HPI is a repeat sales index that uses public disclosure by county recorders or loan origination data for purchase loans (if the sales price isn't disclosed).

From LPS: LPS Home Price Index Shows U.S. Home Prices Declined 0.8 Percent to Late 2002 Levels in October; Early Data Suggest 0.5 Percent Drop in November Likely

The LPS HPI national average home price for transactions during October 2011 was $200,000 – a decline of 0.8 percent during the month relative to September, reaching a price level not seen since October of 2002. This is the fifth consecutive month of decreases in prices. The partial data available for November suggests more moderation of price declines to approximately 0.5 percent.
U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Figure 1: "Prices have fallen since autumn 2008 with brief interruptions each spring. Prices have not been at the current level since October 2002."
During the period of most rapid price declines, from June 2007 through December 2008, the LPS HPI national average home price dropped $56,000 from $282,000, which corresponds to an average annual decline of 13.8 percent. Since December 2008, prices have fallen more slowly, interrupted by brief seasonal intervals of rising prices. During this period of more slowly declining prices, the national average price has fallen approximately $26,000 from $226,000.

The October national average price is down 2.7 percent from the average price at the beginning of the year.
The LPS index is already showing a new post-bubble low, and it appears all of the price indexes will show new post-bubble lows later this year - or early in 2012.