Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in September

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2011 11:59:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2011. In the past month, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in 13, and remained unchanged in seven for a one-month diffusion index of 34. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in 16, and remained unchanged in four (Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, and New Mexico) for a three-month diffusion index of 28.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In September, 35 states had increasing activity, up from 28 in August. It is important to remember that August was an especially weak month due to the debt ceiling debate, and some rebound in September was expected.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Several states have turned red again. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all green not long ago - but this is an improvement from August.

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