Sunday, October 09, 2011

Construction Employment

by Bill McBride on 10/09/2011 08:57:00 AM

The graph below shows the number of total construction payroll jobs in the U.S., including both residential and non-residential, since 1969.

Construction employment is down 2.175 million jobs from the peak in April 2006, but up 53 thousand this year through the September BLS report.

Unfortunately this graph is a combination of both residential and non-residential construction employment. The BLS only started breaking out residential construction employment fairly recently (residential building employees in 1985, and residential specialty trade contractors in 2001).

Construction Employment Click on graph for larger image.

Usually residential investment (and residential construction) lead the economy out of recession, and non-residential construction usually lags the economy. Because this graph is a blend, it masks the usual pickup in residential construction following previous recessions. Of course residential investment didn't lead the economy this time because of the huge overhang of existing housing units.

This table below shows the annual change in construction jobs (total, residential and non-residential) and through September for 2011.

Annual Change in Payroll jobs (000s)
YearTotal Construction JobsResidential Construction JobsNon-Residential
2002-8588-173
2003127161-34
200429023060
2005416268148
2006152-62214
2007-198-27375
2008-787-510-277
2009-1053-431-622
2010-149-113-36
Through September 201153-659

After five consecutive years of job losses for residential construction (and four years for total construction), it looks like construction employment will increase this year (and residential will be close). However there will not be a strong increase in residential construction until the excess supply of housing is absorbed.

In addition residential investment has made a positive contribution to GDP so far this year for the first time since 2005.

Yesterday:
Summary for Week Ending Oct 7th
Schedule for Week of Oct 9th