Friday, August 26, 2011

Q2 real GDP growth revised down to 1.0% annualized rate

by Bill McBride on 8/26/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2011 (second estimate

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This was revised down from 1.3% and slightly below the consensus of 1.1%.

Exports subtracted more from GDP - as did changes in private inventories. Consumption of services and fixed investment were revised up slightly.

The following graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The current quarter is in blue.

GDP Growth Rate Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line is the current growth rate. Growth in Q2 at 1.0% annualized was below trend growth (around 3%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system.

Here is a table of the changes (contribution to GDP):

Contributions to Percent Change in Q2 Real Gross Domestic Product
 2nd EstimateAdvanceChange
Percent change at annual rate:   
      Gross domestic product1.01.3-0.3
Percentage points at annual rates:   
    Personal consumption expenditures0.30.070.23
        Durable goods-0.4-0.35-0.05
        Nondurable goods0.070.020.05
    Gross private domestic investment0.780.87-0.09
      Fixed investment1.010.690.32
          Equipment and software0.550.410.14
      Change in private inventories-0.230.18-0.41
    Net exports of goods and services0.090.58-0.49
    Government consumption expenditures-0.18-0.230.05
        National defense0.380.39-0.01
      State and local-0.34-0.410.07