So one thing I've been looking for is a change in sentiment. Earlier posts on this with anecdotal evidence: Housing: Feeling the Hate, More "Hate" for Housing, and More "Hate" for Homeownership.
A shift in sentiment doesn't mean housing prices have bottomed - it just means the market is getting closer. In previous busts it seemed like negative sentiment lasted for a few years.
Last week Trulia and RealtyTrac released a survey of when Americans thought the housing market would recover. (ht Keith Jurow, Keith is far more bearish than I am bearish).
Here is the survey: Trulia and RealtyTrac Survey Reveals 54 Percent of American Adults Now Believe Housing Recovery Remains Unlikely Until 2014 or Later
As more cities across the nation experience double dips in home prices , more than half (54 percent) of U.S. adults believe recovery in the housing market will not happen until 2014 or later, according to the survey released today. In a previous survey conducted six months ago , 42 percent of American adults said they thought the market would turn around by 2012 or had already turned around. Now, only 23 percent continue to think this will happen.
| When American Adults Believe Housing Market Will Recover | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-11 | Nov-10 | % Change | |
| Already Recovered[1] | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| By the end of 2011 | 3% | 10% | -70% |
| 2012 | 15% | 27% | -44% |
| 2013 | 24% | 24% | 0% |
| 2014 or Later | 54% | 34% | 59% |
Clearly there has been a sharp shift in when people think the housing market will "recover". Expecting a recovery is somewhat different from asking when people will want to buy, but I think they are somewhat related - if non-owners think the market won't bottom for several years, they would probably also say they won't buy soon too. Just a little more evidence of a shift in sentiment ...