Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the January release for the HMI and the November data for starts (December housing starts will be released tomorrow).
This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction although there is plenty of noise month-to-month. The HMI has mostly moved sideways - with some minor ups and downs - for over 2 years now at a very depressed level.