Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators

by Bill McBride on 3/30/2010 12:41:00 PM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Twenty five states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 18 states, and was unchanged in 7

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for February.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 21 states, decreased in 22, and remained unchanged in seven for a one-month diffusion index of -2. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 25, and remained unchanged in seven for a three-month diffusion index of -14.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Based on this indicator, most of the U.S. was in recession in early 2008.

Although the graph shows the recession ending in July 2009 (based on other data), just over half the country was still in recession in February according to this index.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).