Economic Forecast Revisions

With the recent subprime mortgage news and the somewhat disappointing economic numbers, I've been looking to see if economists would start revising their forecasts for 2007.

Sure enough, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released their quarterly survey of 47 economists, from AP:

... forecasters now believe housing construction will plunge by 14.9 percent this year. That would be nearly three times bigger than the 5.5 percent fall in residential construction they had projected [for 2007] in the [November survey].

So once again these economists are "surprised" by housing.

And the impact on GDP?

The panel predicted that the overall economy will grow by 2.7 percent this year. ... NABE's November forecast put GDP growth this year at 2.5 percent.

So, three months later, these economists revised their forecasts down significantly for the housing market, and their GDP growth forecast up slightly. Uh, OK.