by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2010 01:10:00 PM

Via the MSN Money, from Moody's:

US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased for the second month in a row in December, rising 4.1%.
...
"Although we are unable to conclude that the bottom to the commercial real estate market is here, we do believe that the period of large price declines is over," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "We will need to see data from the first few months of 2010 to develop a better picture of where things stand."

Here is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Notes: Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted. Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales - and that can impact prices.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

CRE prices peaked in late 2007 and are now 40.8% below the peak in October 2007. Prices are at about the same level as early 2003.

More from Bloomberg: U.S. Commercial Property Index Rises 4.1% in December

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2010 11:04:00 AM

From San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen: The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy. Excerpts:

... I’m not at all convinced that a V-shaped recovery is in the cards. That fourth-quarter leap in GDP overstates the underlying momentum of the economy. Much of it was due to a slowdown in the pace at which businesses were drawing down inventory stocks compared with earlier in the year. Less than half of the fourth-quarter growth reflected higher sales to customers. Those sales did grow, but at a lackluster 2.2 percent. It appears that businesses are getting their inventories closer in line with sales, which is a good thing. But such inventory adjustments can be a potent source of growth only for a few quarters. I’d feel much more confident about the prospect for a sustained robust recovery if I saw evidence of more vigorous growth in actual sales.

... my business contacts tell me the consumer mindset is still in a fragile state. Clearly, the big weight hanging over everyone’s heads is jobs. ...

The housing sector appears to have stabilized, but here too I don’t see any signs of a sharp turnaround. New home sales and construction finally stopped falling last year and have been reasonably stable, albeit at very low levels, for several months. Existing home sales surged late last year in response to the homebuyer tax credit. But, the credit expires this spring, so this source of support won’t be around much longer. The housing sector has also been benefiting from the Fed’s policy of buying mortgage-backed securities. These purchases appear to have helped keep home finance rates low. But, the Fed is now in the process of tapering off these purchases and plans to stop them at the end of March. As support from Federal Reserve and other government programs phases out, there is a risk that the housing market could weaken again.
...
Put it all together and you have a recipe for a moderate rate of economic growth, well below the spritely pace set in the fourth quarter. The current quarter appears on course to post growth of around 3 percent. I see the economy gradually picking up steam over the remainder of this year as households and businesses regain confidence, financial conditions improve, and banks increase the supply of credit. I expect growth of about 3½ percent for the year as a whole, picking up to about 4½ percent next year, with private demand coming on line to pick up the slack as government stimulus programs fade away.
...
This brings us to a subject that is of paramount concern to all of us—the job situation. This recession has been very severe, indeed. The U.S. economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since December 2007. That’s more than a 6 percent drop in payrolls, the largest percentage point decline since the demobilization following World War II. The unemployment rate, which was 5 percent at the start of the recession, rose to around 10 percent in late 2009. The rates of job openings and hiring are also stuck at very low levels. These statistics represent a tragedy for our country, our communities, and each of the families and individuals who have had to cope with a loss of livelihood.

There is a glimmer of good news on the employment front. The pace of job losses has slowed dramatically and some indicators, such as gains in temporary jobs, suggest that we may be close to a turnaround in the labor market. I was encouraged to see the unemployment rate drop from 10 percent to 9.7 percent in January. Nonetheless, given my forecast of moderate growth and a shrinking, but still sizable, output gap, I expect unemployment to remain painfully high for years. The rate should edge down from its current level to about 9¼ percent by the end of this year and still be about 8 percent by the end of 2011, a far cry from full employment.

I should warn that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this forecast.

There is much more in the speech. Dr. Yellen's outlook is a little more optimistic than me (I think growth will be more sluggish in 2010).

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2010 08:33:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index based on a number of economic releases.

From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity increased sharply in January

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.02 in January, up from –0.58 in December. ...

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.16 in January from –0.47 in December, reaching its highest level since July 2007. January’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that, consistent with the early stages of a recovery following a recession, growth in national economic activity is beginning to near its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

Production-related indicators made a positive contribution to the index for the seventh consecutive month. As a group, they contributed +0.45 in January, up from +0.14 in December. ...

Click on table for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:

A CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. A CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 following a period of economic contraction indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended. A CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20 following a period of economic contraction indicates a significant likelihood that a recession has ended.

Although the CFNAI-MA3 improved in January, the index is still negative. According to Chicago Fed, it is still too early to call the official recession over - although the likelihood that a recession has ended is increasing.

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2010 11:59:00 PM

The U.S. futures are up a little tonight:

Futures from CNBC show the S&P 500 up a couple of points.

Here are the futures from barchart.com

Most of the Asian markets are up tonight, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng up over 2.5%.

From Bloomberg: Asian Stocks, Oil Advance as U.S. Interest Rate Concern Eases

Asian stocks jumped the most since November, oil rose and the yen fell on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will signal that U.S. interests rates will be kept near a record low.

The article suggests some investors misunderstood the increase in the discount rate. Bernanke testifies on Wednesday (see Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead), and he will definitely say that the Fed will hold rates low for an extended period.

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2010 08:49:00 PM

The Bank of Clark County was the 2nd bank to fail in 2009. It had assets of $440 million and is estimated to have cost the Deposit Insurance Fund between $120 and $145 million.

From Courtney Sherwood at the Portland Business Journal: Former Bank of Clark County executive pleads guilty to felony charge (ht Jason)

[A] plea agreement filed Friday in U.S. District Court ... outlines former Chief Lending Officer David Kennelly’s guilty plea on a count of “scheme to conceal material facts.”
...
The bank ordered new appraisals on 23 real estate-backed loans to prepare for [a November 2008 safety and soundness examination by the FDIC and Washington state bank examiners].

Before regulators arrived, Kennelly told a vice president identified as “K.B.” that there were several appraisals that Kennelly “did not want to see the light of day,” ...

These were appraisals related to C&D (Construction & Development) loans and obviously showed huge losses for the bank. Hiding material information from examiners is pretty stunning ...