by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2010 07:39:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

“Refinance activity fell substantially last week,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Although rates remain low, there appears to be a smaller pool of borrowers who are willing and able to refinance at today’s rates.”

The Refinance Index decreased 15.1 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.02 percent from 5.00 percent, with points decreasing to 1 from 1.05 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four week moving average has declined sharply since October, and is at about the same level as September 1997. There are many cash buyers (mostly investors at the low end), but this decline in mortgage applications is significant. Also, it appears the refinance boom is ending.

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2010 09:56:00 PM

James Hagerty at the WSJ writes about existing home inventory: Housing Momentum Builds but Perils Persist

Inventories of homes listed for sale are down sharply across the U.S. and have reached very low levels in some areas ... The decrease in supplies has sparked a return of bidding wars on lower-end properties in some neighborhoods, but the national picture is mixed.

We've been discussing the bidding wars on low end properties since last spring - and that frenzy was driven by a combination of a high number of foreclosures at the low end pushing down prices (what housing economist Tom Lawler called "destickification"), and the first time home buyer tax credit. In some areas - like San Diego - the frenzy has moved up to more expensive areas.

But the national picture is still ugly.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.29 million in December from 3.52 million in November. This is not seasonally adjusted and December is usually the lowest month of the year - and this decline was mostly seasonal.

Inventory levels are still well above normal even though the number of units For Sale has been falling for some time.

The second graph shows the year-over-year percentage change in inventory and the months of supply.

Note the sharp increase in mid-2005 - that was one of the signals that helped me call the end of the boom phase of the housing bubble.

The YoY change has been negative since mid-2008, indicating that inventory is declining. However the months of supply is still above normal (usually 4 to 6 months), even with sales (the denominator) being pushed artificially high.

In a normal market, sales would be about 6% of owner occupied units per year, or close to 5 million units per year. Six months of inventory would be something under 2.5 million units - so at 3.3 million, the level of inventory is still a long way from normal. And this doesn't include all the various shadow inventory that will come on the market.

In a normal year, inventory starts to increase in January (many homeowners remove their homes from the market during the holidays). I wouldn't be surprised if the YoY change was no longer negative some time early in 2010. And I'd expect inventory levels to be above normal levels for an extended period.

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2010 06:32:00 PM

From BofA: Bank of America Becomes First Mortgage Servicer to Sign Contract for Home Affordable Second-Lien Modification Program

Bank of America announced that it is the first mortgage servicer to sign an agreement formally committing to participation in the pending second-lien component of the federal government's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP)
...
Bank of America has systems in place to begin implementing the Second Lien Modification Program (2MP) with the release of final program policies and guidelines by federal regulatory agencies, which is expected soon. 2MP will require modifications that reduce the monthly payments on qualifying home equity loans and lines of credit under certain conditions, including completion of a HAMP modification on the first mortgage on the property.

And more from HousingWire: BofA Signs up as First Servicer for HAMP Second Lien Program

This program was announced in April 2009, and is still in process. Here are the guidelines for the HAMP 2nd lien program. I don't have high hopes for this program.

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2010 03:49:00 PM

From the NY Times Dealbook: A Preview of the House’s A.I.G. Hearing

DealBook has obtained the prepared testimony of three of the witnesses called by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee: Thomas C. Baxter, general counsel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Stephen Friedman, the former chairman of the New York Fed, and Elias Habayeb, the former chief financial officer of A.I.G.

Dealbook provides the statements of all three.

In his prepared remarks, Mr. Baxter defended the A.I.G. bailout, saying a bankruptcy by the insurer “would have had catastrophic consequences for our financial system and our economy.” He called the decision to rescue A.I.G. “a difficult one,” but one that the Fed’s policymakers felt compelled to make.

Mr. Baxter explained that the New York Fed felt compelled to pay out A.I.G.’s counterparties in full to unwind derivative contracts because “there was little time, and substantial execution risk and attendant harm of not getting the deal done by the deadline of Nov. 10,” when A.I.G. was scheduled to report its earning and could face downgrades from credit ratings agencies. That would have led to more collateral calls and even greater liquidity problems for A.I.G., Mr. Baxter said.

He added, “Even in a best-case scenario, we did not expect that the counterparties would offer anything more than a modest discount to par.” Under the circumstance, he said, “the Federal Reserve had little or no bargaining power.”

The TARP Inspector General Neil Barofsky will also testify although Dealbook doesn't provide his statement. Barofsky's comments on the AIG bailout, the benefits to counterparties, and his investigations into possible misconduct will be closely scrutinized.

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2010 01:50:00 PM

Two weeks ago I suggested it might be time to start looking for signs of demand destruction for oil (like we did in the first half of 2008). So far domestic demand (as far as vehicle miles) is still increasing slightly, however demand growth in China might be slowing ...

From MarketWatch: Oil slumps on expected rise in supplies, China worries

Oil futures fell on Tuesday, pressured by concerns that China's attempt to slow its growth will curb demand and expectations that U.S. crude-oil supplies are rising.
...
"China is really the driving force in this market," said Dan Flynn, energy trader at PFGBest.
...
Broad concerns about weak growth and demand globally were also heightened ahead of supply data due Tuesday and Wednesday, Flynn said.

"We still have an oil glut in the market place. All in all, [oil trading] should remain sideways to lower," he said.

I think that needs a graph!

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Shanghai SSE Composite Index and the Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price oil prices on a weekly basis (in blue).

The SSE Composite Index closed down 2.42% to 3,019.39 and oil prices are off from the recent high.

There appears to be a relationship between the two although the Shanghai Composite turned down in last 2007 and early 2008 - well before oil prices collapsed.