by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 10:33:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent from October 2024. ... The August 2025 to September 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.6% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in October were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.

A weak report.