by Calculated Risk on 12/26/2025 08:37:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in this newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI) change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

First a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through Q3 2025:

We don't have the data yet for Q4 2025 yet, but RI as a percent of GDP will likely be down year-over-year.