by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025

Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7 percent.
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From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was at expectations and spending was below expectations.

Inflation was slightly lower than expected.