by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2025 02:11:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 3.5%. That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 2.2% annualized - well above the top end of the September projections. The FOMC revised up Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 GDP growth.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	1.6 to 1.8	2.1 to 2.5	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.1
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. There was no data for October due to the government shutdown, and the November report will be released on December 16th - so the FOMC was flying blind today on the unemployment rate. However, they increased the 2026 projection into the employment recession range. Note: An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might be recessionary.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	4.5 to 4.6	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.3	4.0 to 4.3
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.3

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of September 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.  Projections for PCE inflation were lowered slightly.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	2.8 to 2.9	2.3-2.5	2.0 to 2.2	2.0
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2	2.0

PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in September, down from 2.9 percent in August.   Projections for 2025 core PCE inflation were decreased.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027	2028
Dec 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.6	2.0 to 2.2	2.0
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2	2.0