by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.

Due to the recent government shutdown, this initial report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26.br />
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. ...

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the second quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
emphasis added

PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.