by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 01:18:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score over 50 indicates billings growth). This marked the 13th consecutive month of declining billings at architecture firms, and the 35th month of a score below 50 out of the last 38. Inquiries into new projects only increased modestly this month, and the value of newly signed design contracts continued to soften. Until work in the pipeline starts to pick back up, firms are unlikely to see a significant increase in their billings.

While business conditions at architecture firms have been soft in most sectors this year, the Midwest remained a bright spot in November. Billings increased at firms located in that region for the third consecutive month, and more firms reported growth this month than last month. However, billings continued to decline at firms located in all other regions of the country, particularly at firms located in the Northeast and the West. Firms of all specializations also saw billings continue to contract in November, although fewer firms with multifamily residential and institutional specializations reported declines than last month.
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The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (43.1); Midwest (52.3); South (46.1); West (43.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (45.2); institutional (47.6); multifamily residential (46.6)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.3 in November, down from 47.6 in October.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 36 of the last 38 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 40 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.