by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.6% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 38.6% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 26.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 27.0%), and down 10.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.3%). 

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 1st, inventory was at 866 thousand (7-day average), compared to 860 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube