RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2025 03:56:00 PM
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
June Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Subdued" at 15.0 million SAAR
From J.D. Power: June New-Vehicle Sales Subdued After Reverse of Tariff-Driven Rush to Showrooms; Retail Sales Rise 7.5% in First Half of 2025 Brief excerpt:
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, up 0.2 million units from June 2024.From Haig Stoddard at Omdia: US Light-Vehicle Sales Slow Again in June (pay content). Brief excerpt:
emphasis added
Much of June’s anticipated 12-month-low in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate is an offset from pre-tariff pull-ahead volume in March and April. But also dampening demand is worsening affordability and leaner inventory. Furthermore, a dent in the year-ago month’s sales caused by a cyberattack impacting dealers’ online systems is making year-over-year comparisons look stronger than they would have otherwise.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power's forecast for June (Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 15.0 million SAAR would be down 4.1% from last month, and up slightly from a year ago.
Car buyers rushed to buy in March and April to beat the tariffs. As Stoddard noted, the year-over-year comparison is easy due to the cyberattack suppressing sales last June.
