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Friday, March 15, 2024

GDP Tracking: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2024 11:31:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is up one-tenth to 2.4% q/q saar; 4Q tracking is up three-tenths to 3.6% q/q saar. [Mar 15th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.6% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.2pp to +2.0% (qoq ar), mainly reflecting the normalization of utilities output in February. [Mar 15th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 14, down from 2.5 percent from March 7. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent was slightly offset by increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.0 and 2.7 percent. [March 14th estimate]