by Calculated Risk on 2/29/2024 09:09:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2024.

CPI Shelter was up 6.1% year-over-year in January, down from 6.2% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 6.1% YoY in January, down from 6.3% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over coming months.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 6 months (annualized):

Key measures are now close to the Fed's target on a 6-month basis.

PCE Price Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 1.8%