by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2024 08:12:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.5% week-over-week. I expect inventory to bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of February 9th, inventory was at 495 thousand (7-day average), compared to 497 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 99% from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 11.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 8.7%), and down 39.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week also down 39.1%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.