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Friday, February 16, 2024

GDP Tracking: Q1 Moving Down

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2024 01:21:00 PM

From BofA:

Overall, this left our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate, which kicks off with today’s print at 0.9% q/q saar, one-tenth below our official forecast. Our 4Q tracking estimate declined by three-tenths to 3.1% q/q saar. [Feb 16th comment]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.3% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. We left out our past-quarter GDP tracking for Q4 unchanged at +3.2%, compared to +3.3% as previously reported. [Feb 16th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 15. [Feb 16th estimate]