by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2024 09:47:00 AM

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023.   This is down from 4.8 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. How much will job growth slow in 2024?  Or will the economy lose jobs? 

For review, here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997.  

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s)
	Total, Nonfarm	Private	Public
1997	3,406	3,211	195
1998	3,048	2,735	313
1999	3,181	2,720	461
2000	1,938	1,674	264
2001	-1,733	-2,284	551
2002	-515	-748	233
2003	125	167	-42
2004	2,038	1,891	147
2005	2,528	2,342	186
2006	2,092	1,883	209
2007	1,145	857	288
2008	-3,549	-3,729	180
2009	-5,041	-4,967	-74
2010	1,027	1,243	-216
2011	2,066	2,378	-312
2012	2,174	2,241	-67
2013	2,293	2,360	-67
2014	2,998	2,871	127
2015	2,717	2,567	150
2016	2,325	2,118	207
2017	2,113	2,033	80
2018	2,284	2,157	127
2019	1,959	1,747	212
2020	-9,289	-8,237	-1,052
2021	7,267	6,882	385
2022	4,793	4,518	275
2023	2,697	2,025	672

The good news is job market still has momentum heading into 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.  

There was strong job growth in 2021 and 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic recession.

Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong.

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

	Construction Jobs (000s)	Manufacturing (000s)
2006	152	-178
2007	-195	-269
2008	-789	-896
2009	-1,047	-1,375
2010	-187	120
2011	144	207
2012	113	158
2013	208	123
2014	361	209
2015	337	70
2016	188	-7
2017	273	178
2018	305	263
2019	132	5
2020	-173	-602
2021	239	385
2022	265	390
2023	197	12

For manufacturing, there will probably be some growth in the auto sector in 2024, and possibly in other manufacturing sectors.  However, for construction, multi-family construction will slow in 2024, and so will several commercial real estate sectors (based on both the Architecture Billings Index and the Dodge Momentum Index. 

So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million to 1.5 million jobs in 2024.  This would be another solid year for employment gains given current demographics.

Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions:

• Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?
• Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?
• Question #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?
• Question #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?
• Question #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?
• Question #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?
• Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?
• Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?
• Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?
• Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?