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Friday, January 12, 2024

Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.3% to 2.2% Range

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2024 01:00:00 PM

From BofA:

Overall, since our last weekly publication, our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate is up two-tenths to 1.3% q/q saar, while 3Q GDP finalized at 4.9% q/q saar in the third estimate. [Jan 12th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Jan 10th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 9 after rounding. [Jan 10th estimate]