by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2024 11:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

A brief excerpt:

“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.” Terry Pratchett

These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up further YoY in the November Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 4.0% YoY in November, up from 3.4% YoY in October. ICE / Black Knight reported prices were up 5.1% YoY in November, up from 4.5% YoY in October to new all-time highs, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 6.3% YoY in November, up from 5.6% YoY in October - and also to new all-time highs.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will increase further in the report for November.

There is much more in the article.