by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2023 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:

Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.5 percent and services increased 0.3 percent
emphasis added

The September PCE price index increased 3.4 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 3.4 percent YoY in August, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.7 percent YoY, down from 3.8 percent in August, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2023 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was well above expectations.

Inflation was at expectations.