by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2023 08:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.8% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 22nd, inventory was at 527 thousand (7-day average), compared to 519 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 7.6%.  And inventory is up 30.2% from the seasonal bottom 23 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 5.2% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 6.1%), and down 44.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 45.6%). 

In 2022, inventory didn't peak until late October, and it appears same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year - depending on when inventory peaks seasonally this year!

It seems likely that inventory will be close to or above 2020 levels (dark blue line) by the end of the year.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.