by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2023 01:40:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift

A brief excerpt:

Something different …

Here is a look at the last 50 to 60 years, and some predictions about the next 50+ years.

First, here is a graph from the Census Bureau showing the Median Center of Population for the United States: 1880 to 2020

A key driver of the westward movement was the availability of water, and this boosted population growth in California, and in several other states like Arizona, and Nevada. The population California increased 150% from 1960 to 2020, and Arizona’s population increased more than five-fold. Nevada’s population increased more than ten-fold! (For comparison, the US population increased 85% from 1960 to 2020).

The key driver of the southward movement was Air Conditioning! AC has made the Southern States and D.C. more habitable year-round (Arizona and Nevada benefited from both additional water supply and AC).
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If you were a home builder 50 years ago, you’d start concentrating on building in the West and all across the South to take advantage of this shift.

But what about the next 50 years?

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/