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Friday, August 25, 2023

Q3 GDP Tracking: Moving Up

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2023 11:55:00 AM

From BofA:

Altogether, this decreased our 2Q GDP tracking estimate by one-tenth to 2.4% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and increased it by a one-tenth for 3Q to 2.8% q/q saar [Aug 24th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
[W]e left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar). Our Q3 domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +2.7%. [Aug 24th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.9 percent on August 24, up from 5.8 percent on August 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 11.4 percent to 12.3 percent. [Aug 24th estimate]