by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2023 08:36:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $69.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $67.5 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $100.4 billion (0.5 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.9 percent and services increased 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

The June PCE price index increased 3.0 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.8 percent YoY in May, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.1 percent YoY, down from 4.6 percent in May, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2023 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.

Inflation was below expectations.