by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2023 08:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 14th, inventory was at 470 thousand (7-day average), compared to 465 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 4.1%.  And inventory is up 16.0% from the seasonal bottom 13 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 7.5% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 4.6%), and down 50.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.0%). 

It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year. A key will be if inventory falls below the record levels in 2021 (only about 21% above 2021 levels).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.