by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2023 08:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 7th, inventory was at 465 thousand (7-day average), compared to 466 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.3%.  And inventory is up 14.7% from the seasonal bottom 12 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 4.6% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 1.3%), and down 51.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.9%). 

It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year, but above 2021 levels - and possibly above 2020 levels late in the year.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.