by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2023 11:56:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in June

Brief excerpt:

I’ve argued that there would not be a huge wave of single-family foreclosures this cycle since lending standards have been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity. That means we will not see cascading price declines like following the housing bubble. This is a high confidence prediction and is supported by the following data.

However, there is some concern about some multi-family properties.
...
Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.21% in June, up from 0.07% in June 2022.

This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.

The multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, lending has tightened, and interest rates have increased sharply. This will be something to watch as rents soften.

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