by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2023 04:27:00 PM

From WardsAuto: April U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Post Strong Growth; Inventory to Fall from March (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

Even though the seasonally adjusted annual rate could decline slightly from the prior quarter’s 15.2 million units, sales volume is forecast to rise a robust 13% year-over-year in Q2. Inventory will undergo a seasonally related month-to-month decline in April but resume growth by the end of the quarter.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red).

The Wards forecast of 15.5 million SAAR, would be up 4.6% from last month, and up 8.5% from a year ago.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.