by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2023 10:15:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 0.7% in January

Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, as the South and West registered increases, while the East and Midwest experienced declines. All regions recorded year-over-year declines.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in January (4.00 million SAAR) were down 0.7% from the previous month and were 36.9% below the January 2022 sales rate.

Sales were just above the pandemic low of 4.01 million SAAR.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 0.99 million in January from 0.96 million in December.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 15.3% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2022.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 2.9 months in January from 2.9 months in December.

This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.