by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2022 02:07:00 PM

Here is an interesting paper from San Francisco Fed economist Thomas Mertens Recession Prediction on the Clock

Based on current data, recession probabilities are elevated according to the slope of the yield curve where they are 25 percentage points above the threshold for recession prediction at a 12-month horizon. For the jobless unemployment rate, they currently stand 16 percentage points below the threshold at a 6-month horizon and are thus still relatively low. While the most recent reading of the recession clock has crossed 12 o’clock into the first quadrant, the three-month moving average still shows that it hasn’t done so on a sustained basis. This assessment could change quickly if the unemployment rate ticks up in coming months.

This is similar to the Sahm Rule (using the change in the unemployment rate), but seems to be more of a leading indicator as opposed to coincident indicator.