by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2022 10:18:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December

A brief excerpt:

Over the last month …

1. New listings have declined further year-over-year (YoY).

2. Mortgage rates have declined recently but are still up sharply YoY.

3. House prices are declining month-over-month (MoM) as measured by the Case-Shiller repeat sales index.

4. Rents are falling.
...
And here is a graph comparing the YoY change in the NAR median prices vs the Case-Shiller National Index (the median is distorted by the mix of homes sold, and also lagged since this is for closing prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 6.6%. In general, the NAR median price leads the Case-Shiller index by 2 to 3 months, so I expect the Case-Shiller index to show significantly slower YoY growth over the next several months.
...
Next Wednesday, the NAR will release existing home sales for November. This report will likely show another sharp year-over-year decline in sales for November.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/