by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2022 09:02:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for June will NOT be released.

"ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the "Lab") announced they will retool the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and trajectory of economic growth. In preparation for the changeover to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause issuing the current report and has targeted August 31, 2022 ..."

• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand down from 231 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $84.9 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $87.1 billion the previous month.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	222.3	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	106,178	108,391	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	28,101	26,543	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	267	345	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.