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Thursday, April 15, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased sharply to 576,000

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2021 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 576,000, a decrease of 193,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 25,000 from 744,000 to 769,000. The 4-week moving average was 683,000, a decrease of 47,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,500 from 723,750 to 730,250.
emphasis added
This does not include the 131,975 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 152,419 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 683,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims increased to 3,731,000 (SA) from 3,727,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 7,053,575 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,554,290 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,160,267 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,634,967.

Weekly claims were much lower than the consensus forecast.